What is the future of Islamic State?

27 July 2016

Islamic State (IS) has a simple objective – to create and run a physical caliphate through violent conquest. Build it, and the Jihadists will come was the brutal logic. This worked. However, Control Risks predicted a number of months ago that when that conquest turned into retreat for IS, as it is now, the group would encourage far greater levels of violence beyond its borders. This is now taking place. And whilst the casualties have been rapidly mounting in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and France, the July mass casualty attack in Dhaka is a clear sign that threat levels are also rising in Asia Pacific. The growing likelihood of a major terrorist incident in Malaysia, another one in Indonesia, and the return of the southern Philippines as a training ground for regional terrorists have all brought terrorism risk right back up the corporate risk agenda to a level not seen since the Bali bombings early in the century.

 In a recent article Jonathan Wood, our Global Issues Director, assesses the trajectory of the threat posed by IS, how the tactics are changing and what we can expect to see from them in the months and years ahead.